Welcome to the latest installment of TDdaily’s weekly Buy Low/Sell High column. Mike Braude is here to help you find mid-season value for your fantasy teams by targeting players whose stocks are low and shipping out those who have peaked. Ready, set, trade!
Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots
With Rob Gronkowski’s broken forearm, Aaron Hernandez’s return becomes even more important to the Patriots. Having played just three games this season, two of which were in limited fashion, owners forget just how good Aaron Hernandez can be. During the preseason some Patriots beat writers believed Hernandez would be Brady’s favorite target—now Gronk is out and Hernandez’s relative value to his owner is as low as ever. Take advantage of this opportunity.
Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos
Catching just four passes for 38 yards in his last two games, some owners could be aggravated with Eric Decker. Don’t forget Willis McGahee is out for the season and the Broncos don’t have a really reliable replacement. Owners should expect even more production through the passing game. That means more for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
While he hasn’t rushed for over 76 yards in any of his last three games, there are encouraging signs for Alfred Morris. For the first time all season, Morris served as the Redskins’ third-down back last Sunday. Becoming an every-down back behind Mike Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme is a fantasy recipe for success. Don’t miss out on an opportunity to grab him.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Jordy Nelson returned from injury to catch just three passes for 45 yards, seemingly taking a backseat to young, dynamic playmaker Randall Cobb. This could worry some owners who are annoyed that Nelson missed Weeks 8 and 9. Owners should know better—the Packers high-scoring offense can easily hold up two high-scoring fantasy receivers. Nelson will be just fine, and this lull is good time to grab him.
Keep Buying: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Eli Manning
La’Rod Stephens-Howling, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Despite rushing 22 times for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons last week, the arrow is pointing down for La’Rod Stephens-Howling. With Beanie Wells returning, he figures to be placed in a limited change-of-pace role. Now would be a great time to sell him high and grab a player who is undervalued.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
After topping 100 rushing yards for the first time all season, now is a great time to trade the Law Firm. Averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, the Bengals have tried using other backs over the last two weeks and certainly preferred Bernard Scott in Week 5 before he tore his ACL. Remember, Green-Ellis hasn’t rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 1 and before this week, hadn’t rushed for over 70 since Week 4. Not a guy that is going to help you win any fantasy football championships, trade Green-Ellis to another owner.
Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints
I’m a big fan of Lance Moore and the Saints offense, but his value is soon to regress. Seeing fewer targets with Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles healthy, it’s tough to expect this kind of production to continue. In the four games since Jimmy Graham has returned to the Saints’ lineup, Moore is averaging just five targets per game. So far, Brees and Moore have been efficient enough to overcome that. Don’t expect that trend to continue.
Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Coming into Week 11 averaging 2.8 catches for 27.7 yards per game; Justin Blackmon shredded the Texans secondary with seven catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. Unlikely to have another game like that this season, his value may never be higher. Many are saying that Blackmon is Henne’s new favorite target, but I still believe Shorts is currently the best receiver the Jags have. I would expect Blackmon’s one huge game to remain a diamond in the rough and nothing more.
Mike Braude is a fantasy contributor for TDdaily. Follow him on Twitter @BraudeM.